Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 29.894537 33.277178 37.150968 41.979629 47.932148 55.164446 64.840018
2025-06-29 24.722583 28.880544 34.063539 41.213316 51.207718 65.385868 88.620034
2025-07-06 22.456662 27.292726 33.770595 43.571219 59.097677 85.288767 141.408042
2025-07-13 20.023706 24.963588 31.902609 43.101466 62.601605 100.671093 207.893469
2025-07-20 18.398381 23.434569 30.803741 43.406929 67.429693 122.193535 343.587692
2025-07-27 17.146531 22.234136 29.940993 43.813472 72.593355 149.725810 668.969544
2025-08-03 16.026335 21.073296 28.930986 43.678870 76.594917 179.665197 1664.449366
2025-08-10 15.013756 19.957112 27.821286 43.088685 79.339053 210.699584 8988.478435
2025-08-17 14.270978 19.179565 27.162929 43.221579 84.029788 260.928861 NaN
2025-08-24 13.562062 18.386981 26.374796 42.917711 87.477784 317.258936 NaN
2025-08-31 12.905797 17.623177 25.548322 42.369245 90.043927 381.706970 NaN
2025-09-07 12.338334 16.960206 24.831457 41.930049 92.865678 469.480714 NaN
2025-09-14 11.839695 16.384572 24.233315 41.699109 96.594452 610.818070 NaN
2025-09-21 11.301705 15.708915 23.389920 40.759267 97.400747 738.146949 NaN
2025-09-28 11.171030 15.710524 23.819601 42.985419 112.504507 1772.434132 NaN
2025-10-05 10.758425 15.199879 23.211423 42.487213 115.640426 2968.236546 NaN
2025-10-12 10.458111 14.865542 22.919262 42.768056 123.021521 10432.070065 NaN
2025-10-19 10.190884 14.572350 22.681737 43.156863 131.645461 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.896151 14.213353 22.280089 43.022031 137.477107 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.584332 13.807850 21.752225 42.444747 140.344506 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.352906 13.535271 21.479707 42.573702 148.420305 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.102281 13.215639 21.084919 42.276954 153.498978 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 8.848770 12.879537 20.632934 41.741682 156.538996 NaN NaN